Multinomial Distribution Calculator: Compute Multi-Outcome Probabilities

Calculate Multinomial Probabilities

The total number of independent trials.
Comma-separated non-negative integer counts for each specific outcome. Their sum must equal 'Total Trials'.
Comma-separated probabilities (between 0 and 1) for each outcome. Their sum must equal 1 (approximately).

Utilize our Multinomial Distribution Calculator to determine the probability of specific counts for multiple categorical outcomes in a fixed number of trials. This tool is perfect for statistical analysis, research, and academic studies involving scenarios with more than two possible outcomes. Get instant, accurate results for complex probability distributions.

Formula:

The probability mass function (PMF) for the Multinomial Distribution is given by:

P(X1=k1, ..., Xm=km) = n! i=1m ki!   ×   ∏i=1m piki

Where:

  • n: The total number of independent trials.
  • m: The number of distinct categories or outcomes (implied by the number of ki/pi values).
  • ki: The number of times outcome i occurs in n trials.
  • pi: The probability of outcome i occurring in any single trial.

Constraints:

  • The sum of all outcome counts must equal the total number of trials: ∑i=1m ki = n
  • The sum of all outcome probabilities must equal 1: ∑i=1m pi = 1 (within a small tolerance for floating point numbers).
  • 0 ≤ pi ≤ 1 for all i.
  • 0 ≤ ki ≤ n for all i, and ki must be integers.

This formula determines the probability of observing a specific distribution of counts (k1, ..., km) across multiple categories, given a total number of trials (n) and the individual probabilities (p1, ..., pm) for each category.

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